Example of Simulation -- Colorado River Management

BA 302: Example of Simulation -- Colorado River Management

Remember our standard organizational decision making classifications (Anthony, 1965):

Activity Metters et al. Fig. 2.1 Time step Frequency
Process
Standardization

Operations Tactical Execution
short high high

Management Service Strategy
medium medium medium

Executive Strategic Positioning
long low low

Each layer can use simulations to help manage its processes.

An example: water resources decision making in the Colorado River Basin:

Colorado Basin

250,000 square miles.

Basin managed by United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR).

Total annual flow in the River: about 15MAF (recall CAP is only 1.5 MAF).

Two sub-basins:

Upper Basin: CO, WY, NM.

Lower Basin: AR, NV, CA, UT.

Long term agreements: Upper and Lower Basin each get 7.5MAF/year.

Lower Basin States
Allocation

CA
4.4 MAF

AZ
2.8 MAF

NV
.3 MAF

Total Lower Basin States

7.5 MAF

Upper Basin States

CO
3.9 MAF

WY
1.1 MAF

UT
1.7 MAF

NM
.8 MAF

Total Upper Basin States

7.5 MAF

However...

Notice the variability (stochastics) in the flows:

historic flow record

Very wet years (high flows).

Very dry years (low flows).

Abrupt changes.

All states are 'thirsty;' they all want more.

Each of the interests is thirsty (irrigation, power, recreation, fish habitat, etc.); they all want more.

Interests conflict with each other.
Demand stochastics: daily fluctuating power and water demands.

Overall challenge: How to serve all these needs given the stochastic nature of both the supply and the (short-term) demand?

Make it less stochastic:

Reservoirs as water savings accounts:

What about a really dry spell?

lake mead

Reservoirs must have 'vacant space' when the snow melts:

What if, on top of the snow melt it starts raining a lot?

spillway

Regulation:

Annual apportionments (7.5MAF for Upper and Lower basin each).

Shortage, surplus and operating regulations (Updating the Hoover Dam Documents).

Annual operating plan (AOP).

Etc.

Include the stochastics into your operations and your forecasts:

Activity Type Activity

Operations
(Dam level)

Hourly/Daily releases from the reservoirs

Scheduling
(Regional Offices)

Monthly release schedules from UC and LC

Strategic Planning
(Regional/National level)

Who can take surplus water?

Should AZ be allowed to store surplus water?

What happens if CA does not get its water use under control?

Long term adjustments:

85-90 year simulations.

Simulate long droughts (worst-case scenario).

Sample from the historic record, run possible futures and study the variation of the outcomes.

Time steps months or years.

Monthly adjustments:

Done every month.

Forecast for the next 24 months.

Monthly time step.

Next month's releases set the operating limits for the daily schedulers.

Daily operations:

Breakdown the monthly forecast into daily release schedule.

Take into account daily fluctuating power and water orders.

Operated within the limits of the monthly release values.

You need good IS to pull this off. Example: 24-month study:

HDB: Hydrologic DataBase

LCHDB: Lower Colorado installation of HDB.

UCHDB: Upper Colorado installation of HDB.

LC-24MS: Lower Colorado 24-month simulation model.

UC-24MS: Upper Colorado 24-month simulation model.

NWS: National Weather Service.

24 month study system overview

If it all works well:

Activity	*Metters et al. Fig. 2.1*	Time step	Frequency	Process Standardization
Operations	Tactical Execution	short	high	high
Management	Service Strategy	medium	medium	medium
Executive	Strategic Positioning	long	low	low

Lower Basin States	Allocation
CA	4.4 MAF
AZ	2.8 MAF
NV	.3 MAF
Total Lower Basin States	7.5 MAF
Upper Basin States
CO	3.9 MAF
WY	1.1 MAF
UT	1.7 MAF
NM	.8 MAF
Total Upper Basin States	7.5 MAF

Activity Type	Activity
Operations (Dam level)	Hourly/Daily releases from the reservoirs
Scheduling (Regional Offices)	Monthly release schedules from UC and LC
Strategic Planning (Regional/National level)	Who can take surplus water? Should AZ be allowed to store surplus water? What happens if CA does not get its water use under control?